Case study · Restaurant groups
Testing restaurant site criteria against existing locations
An independent MarketGround analysis. The company is not named and is not a customer.
We applied a drive-through chain's published site criteria to five potential Phoenix locations and two existing restaurants. The comparison showed how the criteria distinguished candidates and how they described the operator's current locations.
The measurements
Seven trade areas, seven minutes by car.
| Site | Residents | Daytime | Day / night | Households | Median income | Eating and drinking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge, first restaurant | 60,238 | 68,435 | 1.14× | 23,347 | $49,495 | 382 |
| Baton Rouge, second restaurant | 65,015 | 105,133 | 1.62× | 27,488 | $78,138 | 491 |
| Glendale, Bell at 59th | 121,358 | 130,600 | 1.08× | 47,623 | $87,272 | 649 |
| San Tan Valley, Hunt Highway | 40,768 | 29,221 | 0.72× | 13,083 | $93,941 | 56 |
| Casa Grande, Promenade | 17,813 | 18,136 | 1.02× | 6,703 | $72,273 | 119 |
| Mesa, Power at Baseline | 161,063 | 151,594 | 0.94× | 66,498 | $80,715 | 644 |
| Queen Creek, Ellsworth at Ocotillo | 53,542 | 43,770 | 0.82× | 16,323 | $142,839 | 164 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
All locations use seven-minute driving areas. We selected the five candidates as potential sites within the expansion market. Source details are on the methodology page.
Finding one
The Casa Grande candidate falls below the population thresholds
Its seven-minute driving area had 17,813 residents against a threshold of 35,000, and an estimated daytime population of 18,136 against a threshold of 20,000. Wider circles reached 57,109 residents at eight kilometers and 69,817 at twelve kilometers. The measured candidate therefore fell below both thresholds within the selected driving time.
Finding two
An existing restaurant falls below the income threshold
| Site | 35,000 residents | 20,000 daytime | Income above market | Passes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glendale | yes, 121,358 | yes, 130,600 | no, 3% below | 2 of 3 |
| San Tan Valley | yes, 40,768 | yes, 29,221 | yes, 5% above | 3 of 3 |
| Casa Grande | no, 17,813 | no, 18,136 | no, 19% below | 0 of 3 |
| Mesa | yes, 161,063 | yes, 151,594 | no, 10% below | 2 of 3 |
| Queen Creek | yes, 53,542 | yes, 43,770 | yes, 59% above | 3 of 3 |
| Baton Rouge, first restaurant | yes, 60,238 | yes, 68,435 | no, 30% below | 2 of 3 |
| Baton Rouge, second restaurant | yes, 65,015 | yes, 105,133 | yes, 11% above | 3 of 3 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Each site is compared with its own market. A fifty-kilometer circle on central Phoenix holds 4,597,131 residents at $89,605, and the same circle on Baton Rouge holds 817,239 at $70,670.
The operator's first restaurant had a median household income 30 percent below its surrounding market. It sits near a university, which provides context for interpreting household income and daytime activity. Comparing the screen with existing locations helps identify where a criterion may need closer interpretation.
The measure the criteria left out
Three Phoenix candidates have lower daytime than resident populations
Both Baton Rouge restaurants had daytime estimates above their resident populations, with ratios of 1.14 and 1.62. Three Phoenix candidates had ratios below one, including San Tan Valley at 0.72, Queen Creek at 0.82 and Mesa at 0.94. Glendale and Casa Grande were slightly above one. Reviewing these ratios adds context to the absolute daytime threshold.
How the daytime figure is builtQuestions
Questions people ask
Why a seven-minute drive?
We used the same seven-minute driving time for all seven locations to compare their surrounding markets consistently. That area provides a common reference for this study.
Where did the site criteria come from?
The operator publishes resident population, daytime population and household income criteria for prospective franchisees. We applied those measures consistently to the candidate and existing restaurant areas.
How was market median income defined?
By measuring it for each market. A fifty-kilometer circle on central Phoenix holds 4,597,131 residents at a median household income of $89,605, and the same circle on Baton Rouge holds 817,239 at $70,670. Each site was then compared with its own market rather than with a national figure.
Is a failed screen a rejection?
A screen directs attention rather than settling a decision. In this study one criterion also excluded an existing restaurant, for a reason that is visible once you look at where it sits.
About this analysis
MarketGround prepared this analysis independently using public data. The company did not commission or review the work and is described by its industry. The study does not imply an endorsement.
The methodology page describes the sources and calculations used in this analysis.
Case study
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